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  • 1.  Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-02-2011 03:10 PM
    I am helping our HR department find job loss or turnover statistics for our industry.  (We can only find national data that is not specific to our industry.) We want to look at 2008, 2009 and 2010 (if available).   We want to compare the industry data to the national data and see how it compares.  We have asked our local chapter but they don't have such data.  Does anyone know where I can get this information or have any ideas? 

    I appreciate the assistance.

    -------------------------------------------
    Alan Scott FAIA
    Principal
    Green Building Services, Inc.
    Portland OR
    -------------------------------------------


  • 2.  RE:Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-03-2011 07:22 AM
    Alan,
    The most authoritative source of employment statistics is the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics. Notice I said authoritative. Not accurate. Unfortunately, they do not separate architects from engineers, and I have found their site difficult to navigate. 

    I am not sure whether the AIA itself is officially tracking this--it is difficult to do. But the AIA's chief economist Kermit Baker may have numbers that are close enough for your purposes.

    Good luck,
    Charles

    -------------------------------------------
    Charles Linn, FAIA
    New York, New York
    -------------------------------------------








  • 3.  RE:Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-03-2011 08:50 AM


    Mar 3, 11
    For perspective, my experience is 30 yrs as practicing architect (Managing Principal in intl firm) and 20 yrs as AEC consultant, 10 of those years overlapping.  With that perspective, I too have found local AIA Chapter reps may have anecdotal stats and trends. Local AIA Fellows are also a good source of "ebb and flow" of local firms' health and employment. Moreover, local Exec Dir's and Chair of Young Architects Cmte usually have the pulse of who's in/who's out and other street smarts info. Check also with local Chair of Membership Services Cmte, or with current Prez (who has pulse of membership dues, etc.). These individuals usually have a keen sense of actual employment stats (in my experience +/- 5% accuracy over the years). Having said that, I have not found that many formal surveys or hard data exist at AIA local - not a criticism, simply statement that they are focused on solving/helping solve the unemployment problem rather than expending resources on precisely defining the problem. For example, in Atlanta regions architect firm/personal unemployment is at about 40% - would find it hard to prove that to an economist, but would find it equally hard to get someone in the know to argue with the number. 

    One sporadic exception to above observations in selective years has been the Govt Liaison Cmte's or special lobbying groups - these individuals have on occasion gathered data to give govt a perspective on impact of legislation (e.g., recently GA considered registration of Interior Designers vs. Architects).

    Re: both info, trends and sometimes stats, I have found ACEC local Member Organizations/Chapters to be good sources of AEC employment/unemployment info/data, and the engineers at times have more stats that do architects. Local Chambers of Commerce typically have service sector or by sector data which is useful. Local Business Chronicle (get the editor of the Top 25 List/Book - focus on Top Architects) and you may have great statistical data. Keep in mind that these data are typically reported by the firm; therefore, unemployment or size drop may be less forthcoming. Finally, Soc of Human Res Prof's (SHRM) has local chapters - do not know if Portland has such a chapter, but it would seem likely given size of metro area. Again, hard stats may be illusive, but anecdotal and working-number data should be readily available. 

    Willing to discuss further if you/others wish. There are other sources that I will gladly review, but are less formal so I will not post them here. 

    Scott Braley 
    Atlanta - 404-252-9840, scott@braleyconsulting.com 
    -------------------------------------------
    Scott Braley FAIA
    CEO
    Braley Consulting & Training
    Atlanta GA
    -------------------------------------------








  • 4.  RE:Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-03-2011 04:10 PM

    Alan,

    Below is some information that may assist you. Please note this is based on the number of "employed" as there are no detail information on unemployed for specific industries. Please contact me directly if you need any further assistance (select "Reply to Sender").

    Summary Table

    % Employment change from previous year (December to December)

     

    2008

    2009

    2010

    Total nonfarm

    2.6% decrease

    3.8% decrease

    0.7% increase

    Construction of Buildings

    11.3% decrease

    17.5% decrease

    3.7% decrease

    *Professional and Business Services

    4.6% decrease

    4.3% decrease

    2.5% increase

    *Architectural Services

    7.9% decrease

    17.5% decrease

    6.7% decrease

    * Architectural Services industry is within the Professional and Business Services sector

    Here are the actual data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov)

    Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

     

    Series Id:     CES0000000001
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Super Sector:  Total nonfarm
    Industry:      Total nonfarm
    NAICS Code:    -
    Data Type:     ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

     

    Year

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    Jun

    Jul

    Aug

    Sep

    Oct

    Nov

    Dec

    Annual

    2005

    132453

    132693

    132835

    133195

    133364

    133610

    133979

    134174

    134237

    134321

    134655

    134813

     

    2006

    135094

    135411

    135698

    135880

    135891

    135971

    136173

    136358

    136514

    136506

    136711

    136891

     

    2007

    137094

    137182

    137400

    137479

    137620

    137687

    137638

    137612

    137681

    137772

    137899

    137983

     

    2008

    137996

    137913

    137841

    137656

    137423

    137245

    137014

    136747

    136313

    135804

    135002

    134383

     

    2009

    133563

    132837

    132041

    131381

    130995

    130493

    130193

    129962

    129726

    129505

    129450

    129320

     

    2010

    129281

    129246

    129438

    129715

    130173

    129981

    129932

    129873

    129844

    130015

    130108

    130229(P)

     

    P : preliminary

     

    Data extracted on: March 3, 2011 (9:53:34 AM)

    Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

     

    Series Id:     CES2023600001
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Super Sector:  Construction
    Industry:      Construction of buildings
    NAICS Code:    236
    Data Type:     ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

     

    Year

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    Jun

    Jul

    Aug

    Sep

    Oct

    Nov

    Dec

    Annual

    2005

    1671.7

    1682.7

    1683.4

    1692.1

    1695.3

    1702.7

    1709.5

    1718.7

    1721.7

    1736.0

    1758.2

    1771.3

     

    2006

    1787.6

    1796.0

    1807.3

    1822.4

    1815.2

    1804.6

    1814.9

    1807.5

    1811.5

    1804.5

    1794.5

    1790.0

     

    2007

    1796.6

    1788.5

    1796.2

    1784.2

    1785.8

    1795.0

    1783.7

    1766.0

    1768.6

    1752.7

    1741.5

    1727.8

     

    2008

    1723.0

    1708.2

    1708.1

    1688.1

    1668.5

    1652.7

    1643.1

    1629.9

    1601.8

    1580.5

    1552.7

    1533.2

     

    2009

    1491.1

    1459.5

    1422.0

    1392.7

    1377.9

    1351.1

    1331.7

    1318.1

    1299.2

    1286.8

    1282.2

    1265.6

     

    2010

    1250.0

    1234.9

    1245.0

    1249.7

    1243.3

    1231.2

    1221.8

    1221.5

    1223.0

    1217.1

    1219.0

    1218.8(P)

     

    P : preliminary

     

    Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

     

    Series Id:     CES6000000001
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Super Sector:  Professional and business services
    Industry:      Professional and business services
    NAICS Code:    -
    Data Type:     ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

    Year

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    Jun

    Jul

    Aug

    Sep

    Oct

    Nov

    Dec

    Annual

    2005

    16638

    16706

    16748

    16804

    16828

    16914

    16995

    17048

    17126

    17143

    17216

    17256

     

    2006

    17297

    17368

    17440

    17465

    17512

    17581

    17631

    17683

    17681

    17685

    17747

    17771

     

    2007

    17830

    17877

    17888

    17914

    17937

    17944

    17955

    17963

    17969

    18006

    18010

    18052

     

    2008

    18046

    18012

    17953

    17956

    17885

    17840

    17776

    17699

    17631

    17518

    17337

    17227

     

    2009

    17076

    16893

    16763

    16613

    16552

    16444

    16415

    16389

    16383

    16390

    16456

    16482

     

    2010

    16513

    16544

    16546

    16615

    16640

    16683

    16681

    16711

    16719

    16759

    16844

    16898(P)

     

    P : preliminary

     

    Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

     

    Series Id:     CEU6054131001
    Not Seasonally Adjusted
    Super Sector:  Professional and business services
    Industry:      Architectural services
    NAICS Code:    54131
    Data Type:     ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

     

    Download:

    Year

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    Jun

    Jul

    Aug

    Sep

    Oct

    Nov

    Dec

    Annual

    2005

    186.2

    186.6

    186.7

    187.5

    189.2

    194.5

    198.2

    198.3

    194.4

    197.6

    198.1

    199.6

     

    2006

    199.0

    199.3

    199.9

    200.3

    202.7

    206.9

    211.3

    211.6

    207.2

    206.5

    207.5

    208.9

     

    2007

    209.3

    211.8

    210.3

    210.3

    213.3

    217.8

    218.5

    217.1

    213.4

    215.5

    215.6

    215.9

     

    2008

    214.8

    214.3

    215.3

    214.5

    214.8

    218.8

    220.5

    217.3

    212.6

    209.8

    205.1

    198.9

     

    2009

    196.1

    189.0

    183.8

    181.1

    177.2

    175.8

    174.3

    172.7

    170.1

    168.6

    165.9

    164.0

     

    2010

    160.3

    158.6

    156.4

    156.7

    156.6

    157.5

    157.7

    156.0

    154.2

    155.1

    153.5

    153.2(P)

     

    P : preliminary

    -------------------------------------------
    James Chu
    Director, Research
    The American Institute of Architects
    Washington DC
    -------------------------------------------








  • 5.  RE:Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-03-2011 09:05 PM
    Job Losses

    I struggled with this as well and have even spoken to Dr. Kermit Baker, economist for the AIA, about this issue.  The bottom line is that any real satistics do not exist.

    For our area, I asked as many firms that I could get in contact with, what their layoff numbers were.  I found that almost all of the small to medium firms gave me a true answer.  When I tried to get the employee numbers from the large firms, I found that their number were always incorrect.  It seems that the larger firms, did large, institutional projects, hence, the offical head count was always larger then the actual staff number.  These firms did not want their potential clients to know how small they had really become.  That also seemed to be the same story for any of these large firms branch offices.  I had to ask recently laid off employees what the true count was for these large firms.

    Of the 30+ firms that I polled, the average layoff number was in the 75% to 80% range.  I found firms that were down from 30 people to 1 principal and he was now working from home.  Some of the smaller residential and retail firms had disappeared altogether, with an occasional principal asking me if I could hire them.  I did find a few firms that were down only 20% to 50%.  Those firms appeared of have large jobs that required another year or two of work, primarily CA.  A couple had a niche client or market that was still requiring ongoing work.  These firms serviced national clients which did work all over the country.

    I caution you in using any of the US Department of Labor employment statistics.  The government only counts those people on unemployment. Once a person uses up all of their unemployment benefits, those people drop off the Labor Departments unemployment counts.  There is no offical count on these people.  Also, people who were contract people or had a sub "S" corporation do not qualify for unemployment benefits, so they never make the Department of Labor's count to begin with.

    Per my discussion with Dr. Baker and many others in the construction industry, it would appear that as a whole, the construction industry has a 75% to 80% unemployment rate.

    Another statistic that is published by one group showes the employment rate.  Currently, the entire country is at a 62% employment rate.  This is down 2% from the last reporting period.  What that means is that 38% of the country's workforce are unemployed, underemployed or have given up looking for work altogether.

    If you care to do the research, compare a firm's pubic statement of architects with that of their AIA chapter statement by which they pay their AIA dues.  I always got a chuckle in seeing how many architects a firm claimed to have in their marketing or presentation pieces (when going after competitive public work) as to how many architects and draftsman a firm claims on their local AIA dues summary list.  There is usually a significant difference.
    -------------------------------------------
    David Hauseman AIA
    The Hauseman Group, Inc.
    Atlanta GA
    -------------------------------------------








  • 6.  RE:Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-04-2011 10:07 AM

    When I chaired our chapter's membership committee (AIA East Tennessee) last year we did a firm principal survey for that type of information as we also were not able to get a real sense of what was going on more than anecdotal or rumor based.  The reason for the survey was twofold; to learn about the state of our local profession in order to better serve each other through the AIA and secondly to pass the information up the pipeline so that AIA Tennessee and those at National would have more than just anecdotal information about our little pocket of the architectural world.

    The questions also allowed for understanding the broad spectrum of employees that our member firms retain from administrative personnel to IT staff and licensed professionals.  (It doesn't really tell the tale to know how many architects are our of work - or gone on to other opportunities, when you don't also ask the same question of interns, interior designers, CAD techs, and engineers a firm might also have on staff!)

    We intend for this to be an annual survey and would encourage the other chapters to gather this type of information as well.  We used a simple 10 question anonymous survey and had a 50% participation rate giving us a reasonably accurate - we think - sense of what has been happening for our chapter's professionals over the last 3 years.  We sent the aggregate info on to AIA Tennessee with the hope that they would compile this with the other four chapters in our state and send it on to AIA National.  Don't know if they followed through with that.  I'd be happy to share the template of questions we used if that would help any of you you gather data for your chapter/region.


    -------------------------------------------
    Nell Travis Campbell, AIA
    Associate 
    Bullock Smith & Partners, Inc.
    Knoxville TN
    -------------------------------------------






    Original Message


  • 7.  RE:Looking for job loss or turnover stats

    Posted 03-06-2011 08:53 PM
    Just as with the recent discussion about 'multipliers', I think the best sources for financial and practice information (at least what I rely on) come from annual surveys of the A/E industry conducted by firms specializing in A/E, like ZweigWhite or PSMJ. ACEC also conducts a lot of annual surveys. (I have seen people mention AIA financial surveys, but I can't recall seeing one.)

    The thing about surveys, though, regardless of the source, is that they are only as good as the questions they ask (do they conform to A/E industry standards), and most importantly, the number of firms that respond to them. Without a lot of responses, the data just do not achieve high levels of statistical significance. A few hundred responses may provide results adequate to for some level of significance for national averages, but not if you want to start dissecting and segmenting results by region, firm size, specialty, etc.

    By coincidence, ZweigWhite is currently conducting its 2011 Financial Performance Survey. If we want better information about our industry, we must participate, and provide the levels of information necessary to help us. I strongly request that all of you, every firm, participate in surveys, as it is the only way any of us ever will be able to answer the types of questions we are asking here.
     
    For this particular survey, go to www.zweigwhite.com/t-survey-participation.aspx. This survey is open only for a couple more weeks, but it means that, within a couple months, we will have much better, more accurate information for, and knowledge related to trends including, 2010.

    An additional note of interest: Rather than continuing its own annual survey, ACEC is now collaborating with ZweigWhite on the Financial Performance Survey in order to help both groups get higher response levels. Our particpation will better help architects, too. Architecture firms have always been recruited by ZweigWhite to participate in surveys. ACEC will bump up overall response levels, bringing in many more responses from their A/E and E/A member firms. The more our firms participate, the survey results can only get better.

    -------------------------------------------
    Michael Webber
    CFO/Principal
    A/E Finance
    www.aefinance.net
    -------------------------------------------