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Perry Cofield AIA
Design Ways & Means Architects
Arlington VA
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Thank you, John Isch AIA for pointing out the July 15 post in Housing Zone, http://www.housingzone.com/design/consumer-research-design-more-important-price-or-location. One could conclude there is no such thing as objective journalism in the home building industry. The statistics in the article state that only 4% of the American public is interested in living in an urban setting- so what about the better than 30% that do? The article went on to survey results about typical buyer preferences for Great rooms over Living rooms, and other lifestyle issues. Surveys are as good as the questions asked, and this is a tired model indeed. Purportedly a design survey, quality of architectural design is not addressed - maybe to veil more fundamental issues.
What happens if surveys ask serious questions about commuting? This issue is too local to generalize. Here in DC, with a strong urban core where multitudes work and a rail transit system, you would get a great departure from the alleged "norm", given traffic congestion, snarled tempers, and the rest. Commutes are exhausting, and savvy homebuyers purchase a fixer upper inside the beltway and live with an obsolete floor plan until additions update the house. Legions of small builders, and myself, make their living thus. Many outside the beltway saw their home appraisals take the heaviest hit, and get no commuting relief either. How many consumers in older areas of large cities were surveyed? And will commute problems increase in other cities as downtowns revitalize? You know they will, given time.
The Builder Model may still apply to mid-sized town America- less populated, still happily car-centric, etc. Since we live in interiors, NAHB and its minions can always re-justify the Sprawl Machine based on what are essentially consumer floor plan surveys. But when you factor in the ambient setting, it is a different story. Based on the bias of their journalists, do builders live in a shrink-wrapped fantasy world with a stopped clock?
Jumping back to appraisal reform, responsible leadership in this area would factor in the environmental impacts of remote builder development BEFORE a building bust. DC is certainly not the only major city to experience this "big sort" in recent years. Appraisal based on comparables is the work of computer monkeys, not sentient human beings! Appraisal industry leaders: you have your work cut out for you. The masters you serve, the banks, would ultimately benefit from a longer-term approach to valuation. For starters, you could assign a grade to energy consumption, as the UK does.
But then, the banks need many things beyond that, starting with a sober recognition of their role in society- if we are to continue to have one. The world runs on more than surveys and simple numbers alone. Financial institutions of late mastered self-serving via "sophisticated" numerical models and outright scams. The details are all too familiar by now. For home appraisals, surely more inclusive metrics could be developed? It is never too late to use sophistication for the common good rather than your bottom line.
Perry Cofield 7.21.12
What happens if surveys ask serious questions about commuting? This issue is too local to generalize. Here in DC, with a strong urban core where multitudes work and a rail transit system, you would get a great departure from the alleged "norm", given traffic congestion, snarled tempers, and the rest. Commutes are exhausting, and savvy homebuyers purchase a fixer upper inside the beltway and live with an obsolete floor plan until additions update the house. Legions of small builders, and myself, make their living thus. Many outside the beltway saw their home appraisals take the heaviest hit, and get no commuting relief either. How many consumers in older areas of large cities were surveyed? And will commute problems increase in other cities as downtowns revitalize? You know they will, given time.
The Builder Model may still apply to mid-sized town America- less populated, still happily car-centric, etc. Since we live in interiors, NAHB and its minions can always re-justify the Sprawl Machine based on what are essentially consumer floor plan surveys. But when you factor in the ambient setting, it is a different story. Based on the bias of their journalists, do builders live in a shrink-wrapped fantasy world with a stopped clock?
Jumping back to appraisal reform, responsible leadership in this area would factor in the environmental impacts of remote builder development BEFORE a building bust. DC is certainly not the only major city to experience this "big sort" in recent years. Appraisal based on comparables is the work of computer monkeys, not sentient human beings! Appraisal industry leaders: you have your work cut out for you. The masters you serve, the banks, would ultimately benefit from a longer-term approach to valuation. For starters, you could assign a grade to energy consumption, as the UK does.
But then, the banks need many things beyond that, starting with a sober recognition of their role in society- if we are to continue to have one. The world runs on more than surveys and simple numbers alone. Financial institutions of late mastered self-serving via "sophisticated" numerical models and outright scams. The details are all too familiar by now. For home appraisals, surely more inclusive metrics could be developed? It is never too late to use sophistication for the common good rather than your bottom line.
Perry Cofield 7.21.12