Regional and Urban Design Committee

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Ten Predictions about the Future of Transportation

  • 1.  Ten Predictions about the Future of Transportation

    Posted 08-11-2013 10:28 AM
    This message has been cross posted to the following Discussion Forums: Committee on the Environment and Regional and Urban Design Committee .
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    Sunday, August 11, 2013

    Ten Predictions About the Future of Transportation

    "I see that it is by no means useless to travel, if a man wants to see something new" 
    ― Jules VerneAround the World in Eighty Days

    Just as paper didn't lose its appeal or use with electronic communication so will virtual reality not replace the need for mobility. Online shopping didn't eliminate traffic, maybe to the contrary.

    Thus, the summer is a great and fun time to think about the what the future of transportation may hold. What makes it even more entertaining is that in spite of most past predictions having been utterly wrong plenty of people are still making them. Most predictions were hung up in technology and overlooked societal changes. Another common flaw is to simply extrapolate the existing paradigm and to overlook impending paradigm shifts. An illustrative  example of that problem were late 1800 conferences about the problem of horse manure in the streets. The peak of that particular problem never came to pass with the invention of the internal combustion engine when other types of urban pollution eventually far exceeded the manure problem.

     Here an attempt of some educated conjecture based on what the past tells us:



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    Klaus Philipsen FAIA
    Archplan Inc. Philipsen Architects
    Baltimore MD
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    AIA26 San Diego June 10-13