Committee on Architecture for Education

A school board member has asked me about predicting student populations in new residential developments. He was looking for information on a comment that was made during their demographics discussion that "an area/neighborhood's student enrollment counts fluctuate and are often tough to predict. In a new development, once a "peak" count of strudents is reached, the long term ups and downs tend to smooth out at about 60-70% of the peak".

Has anyone heard of this? Any suggestions on where one might find more information?

Thanks for your help...

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Michael Broshar FAIA
Principal
INVISION Planning Architecture Interiors
Waterloo IA
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I would start with the state board of education. They may have policies, standards or at least information on predicting populations. If not, they may be able to direct you to another state agency that has that kind of policy, standard or information.

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Sean Catherall, AIA
Herriman UT
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I've done a good amount of work in Montgomery County, MD and their Division of Construction has a book with Capital Projects for the next 5 or 10 years.  In that book, they actually have estimated enrollments for the schools for each year.  You may check with the Division of Construction or the Planners for the County School system.

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Robert Emard AIA, LEED AP BD&C
Project Architect
The Lukmire Partnership, Inc.
Arlington VA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-19-2011 13:28
From: Sean Catherall
Subject: Demographic Trends in New Developments

I would start with the state board of education. They may have policies, standards or at least information on predicting populations. If not, they may be able to direct you to another state agency that has that kind of policy, standard or information.

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Sean Catherall, AIA
Herriman UT
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Many school districts hire professional demographers to prepare multi-year forecasts using birth rates, permit policies, home sales and projected development, among other variables.  I sit on our school board and without this type of information I don;t know how we would make key decisions effecting class-size, permit policies and employment issues.  We contract with Decision Insite.

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Ralph Mechur AIA
Ralph Mechur Architects
Santa Monica CA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-20-2011 10:24
From: Robert Emard
Subject: Demographic Trends in New Developments

I've done a good amount of work in Montgomery County, MD and their Division of Construction has a book with Capital Projects for the next 5 or 10 years.  In that book, they actually have estimated enrollments for the schools for each year.  You may check with the Division of Construction or the Planners for the County School system.

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Robert Emard AIA, LEED AP BD&C
Project Architect
The Lukmire Partnership, Inc.
Arlington VA
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One must have professional demographic assistance.  That said, the outside Demographer of the urban district for which I most often consult had, for decades, painstakingly culled data for new single-family housing starts.  He was careful to focus on the actual issuance of municipal Building Permits as opposed to "plans" by developers.  
When all apparently available land for single-family use within the district's boundaries were largely used, he felt comfortable in predicting a "leveling off" in growth.  He, and the district, were surprised to discover the consequence of multi-family development.  Briefly, an apartment complex, with high numbers of students per apartment, can almost fill an elementary school.


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Marc Brewster AIA Emeritus
Senior Project Manager
Austin TX
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-21-2011 18:36
From: Ralph Mechur
Subject: Demographic Trends in New Developments

Many school districts hire professional demographers to prepare multi-year forecasts using birth rates, permit policies, home sales and projected development, among other variables.  I sit on our school board and without this type of information I don;t know how we would make key decisions effecting class-size, permit policies and employment issues.  We contract with Decision Insite.

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Ralph Mechur AIA
Ralph Mechur Architects
Santa Monica CA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-20-2011 10:24
From: Robert Emard
Subject: Demographic Trends in New Developments

I've done a good amount of work in Montgomery County, MD and their Division of Construction has a book with Capital Projects for the next 5 or 10 years.  In that book, they actually have estimated enrollments for the schools for each year.  You may check with the Division of Construction or the Planners for the County School system.

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Robert Emard AIA, LEED AP BD&C
Project Architect
The Lukmire Partnership, Inc.
Arlington VA
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Washington State's Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) uses the cohort survival method to predict future enrollments. Cohort survival means the percentage of kindergartners who "survive" to 1st grade the next year, 1st graders who "survive" to 2nd, etc, on up to 12th grade. OSPI then averages the survival rates over the previous 5 years to project enrollments out the next 5 years. 

Cohort Survival is a generally accepted but conservative methodology for long term projections. It can be inaccurate for very small school districts or ones with drastic changes such as closure of a military base. Also it doesn't include impact from all the impact from new housing developments because preschool children are not included until they enroll in Kindergarten.

You can see these projections @ www.k12.wa/SchFacilities/Programs/SchoolConstruction Projects.aspx & click on "Enrollment (Cohort) Projections Report 1049. 
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Carter Davis Bagg AIA, AICP, AVS, LEED AP
Project Manager
Educatonal Service District 112
Kirkland WA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-21-2011 18:36
From: Ralph Mechur
Subject: Demographic Trends in New Developments

Many school districts hire professional demographers to prepare multi-year forecasts using birth rates, permit policies, home sales and projected development, among other variables.  I sit on our school board and without this type of information I don;t know how we would make key decisions effecting class-size, permit policies and employment issues.  We contract with Decision Insite.

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Ralph Mechur AIA
Ralph Mechur Architects
Santa Monica CA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-20-2011 10:24
From: Robert Emard
Subject: Demographic Trends in New Developments

I've done a good amount of work in Montgomery County, MD and their Division of Construction has a book with Capital Projects for the next 5 or 10 years.  In that book, they actually have estimated enrollments for the schools for each year.  You may check with the Division of Construction or the Planners for the County School system.

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Robert Emard AIA, LEED AP BD&C
Project Architect
The Lukmire Partnership, Inc.
Arlington VA
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